Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Free Pick

The North Carolina Tar Heels (+9) are set to pay a visit to their in-conference rival Virginia Cavaliers (-9) at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium. Interested parties can tune in to the action on CHSS and this afternoon matchup starts at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels come into this Saturday ACC game as a significant underdog and they’re currently being given 9 points. The Tar Heels are also receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Cavaliers are -360. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points, and if one program finds paydirt early, it will likely result in a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The opening line was -9 while the total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 49.5.

The less-than-stellar Tar Heels are 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 11.1 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-2.

The surprising Cavaliers have gained 5.3 units this season. The team is 6-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-4.

The Tar Heels have gone just 1-5 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against conference opponents. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.

Virginia comes into this matchup on a three-game losing streak while North Carolina has won its last two in a row. The Heels are most-recently on the rebound after a thin 40-37 defeat to Syracuse last week where Nathan Elliott completed 34-of-52 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Antonio Williams (116 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and Michael Carter (24 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while Anthony Ratliff-Williams (nine receptions, 79 yards) and Dazz Newsome (seven catches, 90 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Virginia Wahoos enter this one following a 28-14 win over Duke. The defensive secondary let the Blue Devils air it out for 262 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Taylor was a bright spot in the loss, posting 97 yards on six catches for Duke. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 20-of-32 passes for 189 yards and one touchdown. Perkins (61 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) and PK Kier (36 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running game while Olamide Zaccheaus (10 receptions, 66 yards) and Hasise Dubois (four catches, 41 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

North Carolina’s run the ball on 48.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Virginia has a rush percentage of 57.9 percent. The Tar Heels have produced 187.8 rush yards per game (including 200.5 per game versus Atlantic Coast opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Wahoos are putting up 182.3 rushing yards per game (153.5 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Tar Heels might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed just 30 sacks while their D-line logged 23 sacks. The Cavaliers offensive line has allowed 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 28 times.

The Heels offensive scheme has averaged 234.3 yards through the air overall (258.8 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Wahoos have put up 203.0 pass yards per game (186 in the ACC) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, North Carolina has allowed 188.5 rush yards and 222.5 pass yards per game. The Virginia defense has allowed 206.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.7 yards per game on the ground. The Wahoos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.71 to opponents, while the Tar Heels have allowed a 5.61 ANY/A.

Perkins has connected on 107-of-169 passes for 1,314 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs. Perkins’ adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.09 for the year and 2.22 across his last two games. In the other huddle, Elliott is up to 1,094 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 109-of-181 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Elliott has a 5.40 ANY/A for the year, though that number sits at 7.49 over the past two games.

When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Virginia won by a pair of field goals 20-14.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Virginia, ATS Winner: Virginia, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

The North Carolina D has 20 sacks on the year while Virginia has 15.

The Virginia offense has lost four fumbles this season while North Carolina has let seven get away.

The Tar Heels offense has registered five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Cavaliers have accounted for three such plays.

The North Carolina defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Virginia has given up two such plays.

The North Carolina offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Virginia has created 11 such runs.

The Tar Heels defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Cavaliers have given up six such runs.

The O/U for Virginia’s last matchup was set at 45.5. The under cashed in that 28-14 victory over Duke.

In its last three games, Virginia is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three contests, North Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Virginia has won five of its last six games SU, with a -14-point loss to North Carolina State on September 29th accounting for the lone defeat over that span.

The O/U for North Carolina’s previous game was 66. The over cashed in the team’s 40-37 loss to Syracuse.

As a team, North Carolina has rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt across its past three contests and 5.2 over its last two.

Virginia has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.7 over its last two.