Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction

Victor TrejosBasketball, NBA

The and 3.5-point favorite Denver Nuggets (4-0) look to remain unbeaten when they square off with the Los Angeles Lakers (1-3) at Staples Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 239 points and it will air on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 25, 2018.

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Lakers (1.5-point underdogs) defeated the Phoenix Suns 131-113, while the Nuggets (12-point favorite) beat the Sacramento Kings 126-112. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Los Angeles game finished 17.5 points over the projected point total of 226.5, while the Denver game went 8.5 points over the projected point total of 229.5.

Denver dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 26.1) and a turnover percentage of 10.2 (better than their season average of 10.5). Sacramento recorded marks of 20.9 and 14.4, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ 6.8 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Phoenix, who had a rate of 16.9. The Lakers’ mark was better than their season average of 10.7, while the Suns’ was above the 10.9 mark opponents have averaged against Los Angeles this season. LeBron James put together a solid performance for Los Angeles with 19 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver, recording 14 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.

Conflicting paces will be on display in this meeting. Since the 2017-18 season, Los Angeles has preferred to play up-tempo (first in possessions per game), while Denver has been slower-paced (14th in possessions per game).

Since last season, the Nuggets have had records of 50-36 straight up (SU) and 49-35-2 against the spread (ATS). Since last season, games including Denver have had a tendency to go over the projected point total (59.3 percent).

Meanwhile, the Lakers, are 36-50 SU and 37-46-2 ATS since last season. A little over half of Los Angeles’ games have finished over the O/U total over that same time frame.

This was a highly contested series last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. The Lakers won the last game 112-103. Los Angeles out-rebounded Denver. The Lakers had more offensive rebounds (12 vs. five), defensive rebounds (40 vs. 39) and total rebounds (52 vs. 44).

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Odds Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Nuggets average 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Lakers rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.3).
  • Denver averages 49.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks last in points allowed in the paint per game (49.3).
  • The Lakers rank second in fast break points per game (18.2) while the Nuggets rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (12.9).
  • Los Angeles ranks seventh in assists per game (24.0) while Denver ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
  • Denver averages 4.9 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
  • The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (14.1) while the Lakers rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
  • The Nuggets average 16.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Lakers rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.2).
  • Denver averages 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 24th in steals allowed per game (8.3).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Los Angeles ranks 24th (45.0).
  • Los Angeles is 13-5 when they allow under 100 points, while Denver is 18-2.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Lakers are 33-32 and the Nuggets are 43-26.
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