Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos – College Football Betting Pick

Two schools that like to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Jason Candle and the Toledo Rockets (+6) are taking on the Western Michigan Broncos (-6) at Waldo Stadium. Kickoff for this MAC game is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos

Toledo is the road underdog in this MAC game and is currently receiving 6 points. The Rockets are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -240. If one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages it will generate a worthwhile in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 66 points.

The sharp action has been siding with the Broncos, as the opening line was -4. The game’s total has yet to change after it was initially set at 66.

The less-than-stellar Rockets are down 4.0 units so far and 2-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under mark of 4-2.

The Broncos have gained 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-4.

The Rockets have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Broncos are 6-2 SU overall and 4-0 SU in conference play.

When these two squads faced each other last year, Toledo won easily 37-10.

Western Michigan comes into this matchup on a two-game losing streak while Toledo has won its last six in a row. The Rockets lost to Buffalo 31-17 in a game where their defense allowed the Bulls to pass for 326 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 137 yards and two scores. On the offensive side of the ball, Eli Peters completed just five passes on 17 attempts for 128 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Shakif Seymour (74 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Bryant Koback (81 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Diontae Johnson (two receptions, 97 yards, one TD) and Desmond Phillips (two catches, eight yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Western Michigan just earned a 35-10 win over Central Michigan. Jon Wassink completed five-of-nine passes for 51 yards. LeVante Bellamy (145 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and Jamauri Bogan (96 yards on 19 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as D’Wayne Eskridge (two receptions, 5 yards) and Jayden Reed (one catch, 13 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

When analyzing offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Toledo has run the ball on 60.1 percent of its offensive possessions while Western Michigan has an overall rush percentage of 58.2. The Rockets have run for 195.3 yards per game (including 225.0 per game against Mid-American opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are logging 219.6 rush yards per game (214.3 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Broncos should hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, since their running backs has logged 5.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 4.4 YPC to opponents. The Rockets have recorded 4.7 yards per carry while allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Rockets offensive scheme has logged 221.1 yards/game through the air overall (156.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have put up 247.5 pass yards per contest (249 against MAC competition) and have 16 total pass scores.

Toledo has allowed opponents to run for an average of 195.1 yards and throw for 268.6 yards per game. The Western Michigan D has given up 210.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rockets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.47 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 7.19 ANY/A.

Wassink has completed 126-of-203 passes for 1,709 yards, 14 TDs and four INTs. Wassink’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.68 for the year and 5.79 over his past two games. In the other locker room, Mitchell Guadagni is up to 766 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 47-of-75 attempts with 10 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Guadagni has a 9.68 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 1.32 over the past two games.

Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos Free Pick

SU Winner: Western Michigan, ATS Winner: Western Michigan, O/U: Over

Betting Notes,

The Western Michigan defensive unit has recorded 18 sacks on the year while Toledo has 13.

Both offenses have lost three fumbles this year.

The Rockets offense has produced five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Broncos have accounted for seven such plays.

The Toledo defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Western Michigan has given up six such plays.

The Toledo offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Western Michigan has created 14 such runs.

The Rockets defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Broncos have given up 12 such runs.

The O/U for Western Michigan’s last matchup going into it was 53.5. The under cashed in the 35-10 victory over Central Michigan.

In its last three contests, Western Michigan is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

In its last three games, Toledo is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Toledo has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 16-point victory over Bowling Green on October 6th representing the only win over that span.

The Over/Under for Toledo’s previous game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 31-17 loss to Buffalo.

Toledo has averaged 5.4 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.8 over its last two.

Western Michigan has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.4 over its past two.