The Colts (-7) are set to welcome the Buffalo Bills to Indianapolis. This early afternoon game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS is scheduled to broadcast the action. When the two teams met a year ago, Buffalo won by a pair of field goals 13-7.
Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 7 points in this AFC matchup. The Bills are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Colts are -260. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 43.5 points, and if one team finds paydirt early, it will probably generate a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s total has been driven downward after initially being set at 44. The opening line (-7) has remained consistent.
The Bills are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.8 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.
The Colts have lost 3.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-2.
The Bills are 2-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Colts are 1-5 SU.
The Bills fell to Houston 20-13 in a Week 6 contest where the Bills completed 16-of-29 passes for 145 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Josh Allen went 10-for-17 for 84 yards while Nathan Peterman completed six-of-12 for 61 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. LeSean McCoy (73 rushing yards on 16 attempts) led the ground attack while Charles Clay (four receptions, 20 yards) and Zay Jones (three catches, 35 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
Indianapolis just suffered a 42-34 loss to the Jets a week ago. The defense allowed the Jets to kill the clock by rushing for 107 yards on 36 attempts. Jermaine Kearse put up a solid showing for New York, posting 94 yards on nine catches. For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck completed 23-of-43 passes for 301 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Marlon Mack (89 yards on 12 rush attempts) handled the running game while Zach Pascal (five receptions, 35 yards) and Eric Ebron (four catches, 71 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Buffalo has run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 30.0 percent. The Bills have rushed for 99.5 yards per game and have four scores on the ground this year. The Colts are putting up 83.2 rushing yards per game and have just one rush TD.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Colts ought to hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has allowed just 10 sacks while the D-line has logged 19 sacks. The Bills offensive line has given up 24 sacks and their defense has created only 19 sacks.
The Bills offense has tallied 152.8 yards per contest through the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Colts have recorded 298.7 pass yards per game and have 16 total pass TD.
Buffalo seems to have an advantage in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 92.5 yards and pass for 236.0 yards per game. The Indianapolis D has allowed 297.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.50 to opposing QBs, while the Colts have allowed a 6.54 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Allen has put up 750 yards on the year, and has connected on 65-of-120 attempts with two passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 3.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.62 over the last two games.
LeSean McCoy (158 rushing yards, 62 receiving yards on the year), Zay Jones (179 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Kelvin Benjamin (135 receiving yards, one TD) have all played big roles lately.
In the home locker room, Andrew Luck has managed to complete 148-of-229 passes for 1,427 yards, 13 TDs and six INTs. Luck’s ANY/A sits at 5.68 for the year and 5.54 over his last two outings.
Similar to the Bills, expect a balanced approach offensively from Indianapolis this Sunday. Eric Ebron (221 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns this season), Nyheim Hines (68 rush yards, one rush TD, 140 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Chester Rogers (189 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 421 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two games.
Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts Free Betting Pick
SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Colts, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Bills have made five pass plays of 30+ yards while the Colts have accounted for four such plays.
- The Buffalo defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while Indianapolis has given up zero such plays.
- The Buffalo offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Indianapolis has created two such runs.
- The Bills defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Colts have given up four such runs.
- Each team defense has produced 19 sacks this season.
- Buffalo, as a team, has produced 3.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
- Indianapolis has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
- In its last three contests, Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Buffalo’s last game was set at 40.5. The under cashed in the team’s 20-13 loss to Houston.
- In its last three contests, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Indianapolis’ last game was set at 48. The over cashed in the team’s 42-34 loss to the Jets.
