Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Michigan is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. If they are wanting to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to wager $300 in order to win $100 back on the Wolverines (-300). The Spartans are getting +220 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points. If the favorite gets down early, it’ll likely produce a nice betting opportunity in-game.
The line opened at 6.5. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially established at 45.5.
The Wolverines have gained 2.5 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 4-3.
The Spartans are down 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-4 ATS and four of their games have gone over the total.
The Wolverines have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Spartans are 4-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.
These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 14-10 victory for Michigan State.
The Wolverines are trying to maintain momentum after a solid 38-13 win over Wisconsin last week. Shea Patterson completed 14 passes for just 124 yards. Karan Higdon (105 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Patterson (90 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack. Nico Collins (four receptions, 31 yards) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (three catches, 30 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Michigan State just earned a 21-17 win over Penn State. Brian Lewerke completed 24-of-52 passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. La’Darius Jefferson (60 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Lewerke (20 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running attack while Felton Davis III (eight receptions, 100 yards, two TDs) and Laress Nelson (five catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Michigan’s run the ball on 61.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan State has an overall rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Wolverines have run for 217.0 yards/game (including 239.0 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Spartans are putting up 123.0 rushing yards per game (116.7 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then the Wolverines might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up only 36 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The Spartans, on the other hand, have allowed 21 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 27 times.
The Wolverines offensive scheme has averaged 207.0 yards through the air overall (205.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Spartans have recorded 271.5 pass yards per game (281 against Big 10 competition) and have eight total pass scores.
Michigan should have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 108.9 yards and throw for 129.1 yards per game. The Michigan State D has allowed 286.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 62.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.81 to opponents, while the Spartans have given up a 5.30 ANY/A.
Offensively, Patterson has amassed 1,029 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 90-of-132 attempts with seven scores through the air and only two interceptions. He’s got a 7.00 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.80 over the last two outings.
Brian Lewerke has managed to complete 104-of-174 passes for 1,258 yards, seven TDs and six INTs for Michigan State. His ANY/A stands at 5.58 for the season and 4.93 over his past two games.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Michigan, ATS Winner: Michigan, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Michigan defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this season. Michigan State has recorded just 13 sacks.
- Michigan State has lost three fumbles in 2018 while the Michigan offense has let one get away.
- The Wolverines offense has registered five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Spartans have accounted for one such play.
- Both teams have allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Michigan defense has given up eight pass plays of 30+ yards while Michigan State has given up five such plays.
- The Michigan offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Michigan State has created six such runs.
- The Wolverines defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Spartans have given up two such runs.
- The Over/Under for Michigan State’s last game going into it was 54. The under cashed in the 21-17 victory over Penn State.
- In its last three contests, Michigan State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, Michigan is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Michigan State has won four of its last five games SU, with a -10-point defeat to Northwestern on October 6th accounting for its one loss over that span.
- The O/U for Michigan’s last game was set at 46.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-13 triumph over Wisconsin.
- Michigan, as a team, has averaged 5.2 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.6 over its last two.
- Michigan State has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
