The No. 18 Penn State Nittany Lions (-14) are making a trip west to battle their Big 10 nemesis Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. ABC will broadcast the action and this key daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Indiana is entering this Big 10 game as a big underdog and is currently getting 14 points. The Nittany Lions are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Hoosiers are +500. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 61 points. If the underdog strikes early, it’ll probably create a solid in-game betting opportunity.
Square bettors have been hammering the Nittany Lions, as the line opened at 13. The game’s total hasn’t changed after being initially placed at 61.
The disappointing Nittany Lions are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 6.0 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U mark of 4-2.
The Hoosiers are up 2.0 units this season. The team is 2-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 4-3.
The Nittany Lions have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Hoosiers are 4-3 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.
Each team enters this contest on a two-game losing skid. The Nittany Lions lost to Michigan State 21-17 in a game where their defense allowed the Spartans to run for 123 yards on 36 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Offensively, Trace McSorley completed 19 passes for 192 yards and one touchdown. Miles Sanders (162 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller McSorley (37 yards on 13 carries) mounted the ground attack. KJ Hamler (five receptions, 66 yards, one TD) and Pat Freiermuth (three catches, 32 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Iowa took care of this Indiana team by a score of 42-16. Peyton Ramsey completed 31-of-42 passes for 263 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Ramsey (9 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Reese Taylor (six receptions, 28 yards) and Donavan Hale (five catches, 51 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Penn State has run the ball on 58.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indiana has an overall rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Nittany Lions have rushed for 251.8 yards per game (including 266.0 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Hoosiers are logging 149.7 rushing yards per game (85.8 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, it’s looking like the Nittany Lions may own the advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, since their running backs has logged 6.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Hoosiers have registered 4.1 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Nittany Lions offensive scheme has tallied 239.3 yards/game in the air overall (227.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Hoosiers have recorded 249.9 pass yards per outing (286 against Big 10 competition) and also have 13 total pass scores.
Defensively, Penn State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 155.3 yards and throw for 209.7 yards per game. The Indiana defense has allowed 227.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.46 to opposing QBs, while the Hoosiers have given up a 6.54 ANY/A.
Offensively, McSorley is up to 955 passing yards this year. He’s completed 76-of-138 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. McSorley has a 7.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.43 over the last two games.
On the other sideline, Peyton Ramsey has completed 146-of-204 passes for 1,302 yards, nine TDs and seven INTs. Ramsey’s ANY/A sits at 5.25 for the year and 5.73 over his past two games.
When these two teams met last year, Penn State won handily 45-14.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Indiana, ATS Winner: Indiana, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Penn State’s last game was set at 54. The under cashed in the team’s 21-17 loss to Michigan State.
- As a team, Penn State has produced 6.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.4 over its last two.
- Indiana has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 3.3 over its past two.
- The Indiana offense has lost four fumbles this season while Penn State has lost five.
- Over its last three matches, Penn State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Indiana’s last matchup was set at 52. The over cashed in the 42-16 loss to Iowa.
- In its last three contests, Indiana is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Indiana has lost four of its last five games SU, with a seven-point win over Rutgers on September 29th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
- The Nittany Lions offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Hoosiers have accounted for one such play.
- Both teams have allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Penn State defense has given up eight pass plays of 30+ yards while Indiana has given up 10 such plays.
- The Penn State offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Indiana has created six such runs.
- The Nittany Lions defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Hoosiers have given up eight such runs.
- The Penn State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this season. Indiana has recorded just 11 sacks.
