Two teams that like to mix in a lot of running plays, No. 23 Badgers (-25) are gearing up to welcome their in-conference rival Illinois Fighting Illini to Wisconsin. This vital afternoon game starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FS1.
Betting Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 25 points to Illinois. If the Badgers stumble early on it’ll produce a worthy betting scenario in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points.
This matchup’s line has recently shifted up from -26 to where it stands now (-25). The game’s over/under has yet to move after it was set initially at 54.5.
The Fighting Illini have gained 1.0 unit so far in 2018 and are 3-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.
The Badgers are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-5 ATS and the over’s hit in four of their games.
The Fighting Illini are 3-3 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Badgers are 4-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.
The Fighting Illini are hoping to bounce back after a 46-7 loss to Purdue last week where the defense allowed the Boilermakers to pass for 384 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 227 yards and two scores. D.J. Knox had a productive day for the Boilermakers in that one with 150 rushing yards on 17 attempts. On the offense, AJ Bush completed just 12 passes on 25 attempts for 170 yards and one interception. Trenard Davis (three receptions, 44 yards) and Carmoni Green (three catches, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Michigan got the win against this Wisconsin team by a score of 38-13. The Badgers defensive unit allowed the Wolverines to run for 320 yards on 48 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Karan Higdon put up a productive showing in the win for Michigan, posting 105 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. For Wisconsin, Alex Hornibrook completed seven-of-20 passes for 100 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jonathan Taylor (101 yards on 17 rush attempts) mounted the running game as Jake Ferguson (two receptions, 46 yards) and Kendric Pryor (two catches, 30 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Illinois has run the ball on 62.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Wisconsin has an overall rush percentage of 65.5 percent. The Fighting Illini have rushed for 228.8 yards/game (including 214.7 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Badgers are logging 269.7 rush yards per game (254.3 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then the Badgers may hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness, as their running backs has produced 6.2 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 5.0 to opponents. The Fighting Illini have tallied 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Fighting Illini offense has averaged 155.3 yards through the air overall (145.3 per game against conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Badgers have recorded 177.7 pass yards per game (156 in the Big 10) and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Illinois has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 199.5 yards and pass for 305.2 yards per game. The Wisconsin defense has allowed 203.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Fighting Illini have given up an ANY/A of 6.59 to opposing QBs, while the Badgers are allowing an ANY/A of 6.55.
Offensively, Bush has amassed 393 passing yards this year, and has connected on 55 percent of his 55 attempts with zero scores through the air and one interception. Bush’s got a 4.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.98 over the last two games.
In the other huddle, Alex Hornibrook has connected on 67-of-110 passes for 900 yards, seven TDs and four INTs. Hornibrook’s ANY/A sits at 6.71 for the year and 4.17 over his past two games.
These two programs faced off last year with the final result being a 24-10 victory for Wisconsin.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Wisconsin Badgers Free Pick
SU Winner: Wisconsin, ATS Winner: Illinois, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Illinois defense has 10 sacks on the year while Wisconsin has eight.
- Wisconsin has lost three fumbles in 2018 while Illinois has lost two.
- Each team has produced two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Fighting Illini have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Badgers have created five such plays.
- The Illinois defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Wisconsin has given up four such plays.
- The Illinois offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Wisconsin has created 14 such runs.
- The Fighting Illini defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Badgers have given up eight such runs.
- The O/U for Wisconsin’s last outing was 46.5. The over cashed in that 38-13 loss to Michigan.
- In its last three matches, Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three matches, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Illinois’ last game was set at 62. The under cashed in the team’s 46-7 defeat to Purdue.
- Illinois has averaged 5.4 yards per rush attempt across its last three contests and 5.4 over its last two.
- Wisconsin has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 7.2 over its last two.
