In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to feature their running games, Head Coach Randy Edsall and the Connecticut Huskies (+33) are set to face off against their in-conference counterpart No. 21 South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls vs. Connecticut Huskies
South Florida has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 33 points to Connecticut. If the Huskies seize control early it will produce a reasonable live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 69 points.
With the game’s over/under initially placed at 70, sharp bettors have been siding with the under.
The Huskies have gained 0.0 units this season and are 1-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3.
Despite a 2-4 record ATS, the Bulls have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this year, gaining 5.5 units. The team also has an O/U record of 2-3.
The perfect Huskies have gone a lousy 1-5 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against conference opponents. The Bulls are 6-0 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.
The Huskies are most-recently reeling from a 55-14 defeat to Memphis on October 6. The passing attack could’ve been better as the Huskies completed 24-of-43 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. David Pindell went 22-for-37 for 190 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Marvin Washington completed two-of-six for 25 yards and one interception. Kevin Mensah (21 rushing yards on 13 attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Aaron McLean (six receptions, 64 yards) and Hergy Mayala (five catches, 47 yards) shared the receiving duties.
South Florida is coming off of a 25-24 win over Tulsa. The defense allowed the Golden Hurricane to rush for 220 yards on 49 attempts, including two rush TDs. Shamari Brooks was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts for Tulsa. For South Florida, Blake Barnett completed 17-of-39 passes for 237 yards and one interception. Jordan Cronkrite (151 rushing yards on 25 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win as Tyre McCants (eight receptions, 91 yards) and Mitchell Wilcox (five catches, 95 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Connecticut’s run the ball on 53.0 percent of its offensive possessions while South Florida has an overall rush percentage of 54.9. The Huskies have rushed for 166.3 yards/game (including 144.3 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Bulls are totaling 218.7 rush yards per game (182.5 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Bulls ought to own an edge in terms of RB efficiency. Their running backs has generated 5.4 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Huskies have registered 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 7.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Huskies offense has averaged 211.5 yards through the air overall (220.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Bulls have recorded 268.7 pass yards per outing (209 against AAC competition) and have nine total pass TDs.
Connecticut has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 322.3 yards and pass for 335.8 yards per game. The South Florida defense has allowed 188.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 214.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.41 to opponents, while the Huskies have given up a whopping 12.28 ANY/A.
Offensively, Pindell is up to 997 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 65 percent of his 150 attempts with eight passing scores and five interceptions. Pindell has a 5.53 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.42 over the last two games.
For the home team, Blake Barnett has completed 97-of-164 passes for 1,341 yards, eight TDs and four INTs. Barnett’s ANY/A stands at 7.12 for the season and 5.18 over his last two outings.
When these two schools faced each other last year, South Florida earned the win 37-20.
Connecticut Huskies vs. South Florida Bulls NCAA Pick
SU Winner: South Florida, ATS Winner: Connecticut, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The South Florida defense has created 19 sacks on the year while Connecticut has just seven.
- The South Florida offense has lost two fumbles this season while Connecticut has lost seven.
- The Huskies offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulls have put up eight such plays.
- The Connecticut defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Florida has given up three such plays.
- The Connecticut offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Florida has created 10 such runs.
- The Huskies defense has allowed 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulls have given up 13 such runs.
- The Over/Under for South Florida’s previous match was set at 59.5. The under cashed in that 25-24 victory over Tulsa.
- Over its last three matchups, South Florida is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three contests, Connecticut is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Connecticut’s last game was 77.5. The under cashed in the team’s 55-14 defeat to Memphis.
- As a team, Connecticut has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.7 over its last two.
- South Florida has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.0 over its last two.
