In a display of two teams that prefer to run the football, Coach Nick Saban and the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (+29.5) are set to take on their in-conference rival Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. CBS will broadcast the action and the critical afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 29.5 points to Tennessee. If the Vols seize momentum in the early stages it’ll produce a nice in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 57 points.
The game’s total hasn’t changed after it was initially set at 57. Having said that, the line opened at 28.5 and has recently moved up to 29.5.
The Crimson Tide have gained 0.0 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-2.
The Volunteers have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 4.0 units. The team is 3-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Crimson Tide are 7-0 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against conference opponents. The Volunteers are 3-3 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Crimson Tide are looking to stay unbeaten after a 39-10 victory over Missouri last week. the Crimson Tide completed 19-of-30 passes for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa went 12-for-22 for 265 yards and three touchdowns while Jalen Hurts completed seven-of-eight for 115 yards. Damien Harris (62 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and Najee Harris (57 yards on 13 carries) provided the ground attack in the win while Devonta Smith (four receptions, 100 yards, one TD) and Henry Ruggs III (four catches, 50 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Tennessee just earned a 30-24 win over Auburn. The defense allowed the Tigers to pass for 322 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 126 yards. Anthony Schwartz was a bright spot in the loss, recording 44 rushing yards on three attempts, along with 83 yards and a score on two catches for Auburn. For Tennessee, Jarrett Guarantano completed 21-of-32 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Ty Chandler (50 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Tim Jordan (26 yards on 13 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Jauan Jennings (five receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and Chandler (five catches, 62 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Alabama’s run the ball on 61.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 59.2 percent across possessions in conference play. Tennessee has an overall run percentage of 64.2 percent, and has rushed the ball 59.6 percent of the time against SEC opponents. The Crimson Tide have produced 216.7 rush yards/game (including 187.3 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 17 scores via handoffs this year. The Vols are logging 159.0 rush yards per game (96.7 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Crimson Tide may hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Volunteers have rushed for 3.9 yards per carry and allowed 4.5 YPC to opponents.
The Tide offensive scheme has averaged a stellar 350.3 yards through the air overall (373.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 27 passing scores so far. The Vols have recorded 207.0 pass yards per game (226 against SEC foes) and have seven total pass TDs.
Alabama seems to have an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 125.1 yards and pass for 189.9 yards per game. The Tennessee defense has allowed 205.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 152.7 yards per game on the ground. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.27 to opponents, while the Vols have given up a 6.34 ANY/A.
Offensively, Tagovailoa is up to 1,426 passing yards this season, and has completed 71 percent of his 110 attempts with 17 scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Tagovailoa’s got a sparkling 15.41 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 20.19 over the last two outings.
Jarrett Guarantano has completed 67-of-104 passes for 986 yards, four TDs and two INTs for Tennessee. His ANY/A sits at 8.13 for the year and 9.05 over his last two games.
When these two teams faced one another last year, Alabama knocked Tennessee off soundly 45-7.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Tennessee, ATS Winner: Tennessee, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Alabama D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this season. Tennessee has registered just 12 sacks.
- The Tennessee offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Alabama has lost four.
- The Crimson Tide offense has created 15 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Volunteers have accounted for six such plays.
- The Alabama defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tennessee has given up three such plays.
- The Alabama offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Tennessee has created seven such runs.
- The Crimson Tide defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Volunteers have given up five such runs.
- The O/U for Tennessee’s last outing going into it was 47.5. The over cashed in the 30-24 triumph over Auburn.
- In its last three matches, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Alabama’s previous game was set at 72. The under cashed in the team’s 39-10 triumph over Missouri.
- Alabama, as a team, has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its last two.
- Tennessee has averaged 2.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.2 over its past two.
