Two schools that prefer running the football, Head Coach Lance Leipold and the Buffalo Bulls (+2) are set to pay a visit to their MAC nemesis Toledo Rockets (-2) at Glass Bowl. ESPN+ has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Toledo Rockets vs. Buffalo Bulls
In this Saturday Mid-American game, Toledo is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 2 points. The Bulls are also receiving +110 moneyline odds while the Rockets are -130. There will probably be some good in-game betting scenarios in this contest, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 67 points.
The original odds have shifted, as the line opened at -3. The game’s total hasn’t moved after being initially set at 67.
The surprising Bulls are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 2.6 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 5-1.
The Rockets are down 2.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-4 ATS and four of their games have gone over the total.
The Bulls have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against MAC opponents. The Rockets are 3-3 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulls are looking to keep things going following a solid 24-6 victory over Akron last week where Tyree Jackson completed just 16 passes on 30 attempts for 212 yards, as well as a TD and an interception. Jaret Patterson (91 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Kevin Marks (64 yards on 15 carries) led the ground attack while K.J. Osborn (six receptions, 116 yards) and Anthony Johnson (two catches, 44 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Toledo narrowly fell 28-26 to Eastern Michigan. Mitchell Guadagni completed 12-of-27 passes for 147 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Guadagni (137 rushing yards on 27 attempts, one TD) and Shakif Seymour (61 yards on 13 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Diontae Johnson (four receptions, 44 yards) and Cody Thompson (three catches, 37 yards, one TD) led all Toledo pass-catchers in the loss.
Buffalo has run the ball on 58.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Toledo has a rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Bulls have rushed for 181.9 yards/game (including 227.3 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Rockets are logging 201.5 rushing yards per game (258.5 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Bulls ought to have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has allowed only 17 sacks while their D-line logged 18 sacks. The Rockets offensive line has given up 22 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 22 occasions.
The Bulls offensive scheme has averaged 222.0 yards through the air overall (221.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Rockets have produced 235.2 pass yards per contest (166 in the MAC) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Buffalo seems to have an advantage in both defensive facets. The team’s let opponents rush for an average of 163.0 yards and pass for 172.9 yards per game. The Toledo defense has allowed 259.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 204.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.00 to opposing QBs, while the Rockets have given up a 7.03 ANY/A.
Offensively, Jackson has amassed 1,416 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 58 percent of his 180 attempts with 17 scores through the air and only four interceptions. Jackson has an 8.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.38 over the last two outings.
Eli Peters has managed to complete 35-of-71 passes for 436 yards, five TDs and one INT for Toledo. His ANY/A sits at 6.07 for the year and 6.97 across his last two outings.
These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to face each other in 2017.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets Free Prediction
SU Winner: Buffalo, ATS Winner: Buffalo, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- As a team, Buffalo has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
- Toledo has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.4 over its past two.
- Each team has lost one fumble this season.
- The Bulls offense has created nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rockets have put up four such plays.
- The Buffalo defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Toledo has given up seven such plays.
- The Buffalo offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Toledo has created nine such runs.
- The Bulls defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rockets have given up 13 such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has more than twice as many sacks as Toledo this year (17 versus eight).
