The Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats will square off on the turf at Kroger Field. This SEC game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET and SEC Network is scheduled to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats
In this Saturday Southeastern matchup, Kentucky is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 11 points. The Commodores are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are -425. If one squad catches a lucky break early it’ll create a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Commodores, as the opening line was -12. The game’s O/U has not moved after being initially set at 48.
The Commodores are down 1.0 unit so far and 3-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-5.
The Wildcats have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 8.3 units. They’re 3-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-4.
The Commodores have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against SEC opponents. The Wildcats are 5-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
When these two teams faced one another last year, Kentucky won easily 44-21.
The Commodores dropped one to Florida 37-27 in a matchup where the passing attack the primary culprit as Kyle Shurmur completed only 18-of-36 passes for 229 yards, two scores and one interception. Jamauri Wakefield (32 rushing yards on eight attempts, one TD) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (56 yards on seven carries) led the ground attack while Kalija Lipscomb (four receptions, 64 yards) and Khari Blasingame (three catches, 16 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Kentucky just dropped a 20-14 game to Texas A&M. The defense allowed the Aggies to run for 164 yards on 45 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Trayveon Williams was on a different level for Texas A&M, recording 138 rushing yards and a score on 24 attempts, along with 72 yards on six catches. For Kentucky, Terry Wilson completed 13-of-20 passes for 108 yards and one touchdown. Wilson (4 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Benny Snell (60 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game as Snell (four receptions, 18 yards) and C.J. Conrad (three catches, 25 yards) led all Kentucky pass-catchers in the loss.
Vanderbilt’s run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 44.2 percent across possessions in conference play. Kentucky has an overall rush percentage of 66.1 percent, and has kept it on the ground 70.1 percent of the time against SEC opponents. The Commodores have produced 151.6 rush yards per game (including 112.3 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are putting up 223.5 rushing yards per game (199.3 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Wildcats might have an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Commodores have tallied 4.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.
The Commodores offense has logged 238.1 yards/contest in the air overall (201.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 145.5 pass yards per game (116 in the SEC) and have six total pass TDs.
Defensively, Vanderbilt has allowed 183.3 rush yards and 240.6 pass yards per game. The Kentucky D has allowed 185.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.64 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores have allowed a 6.92 ANY/A.
Offensively, Shurmur has put up 1,460 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 60 percent of his 195 attempts with 11 scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 7.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.71 over the last two games.
On the other sideline, Terry Wilson has completed 62-of-93 passes for 571 yards, three TDs and four INTs. Wilson’s ANY/A sits at a terrible 3.75 for the year and 4.13 over his last two games.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats Free Pick
SU Winner: Kentucky, ATS Winner: Kentucky, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Kentucky defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this year. Vanderbilt has recorded 13 sacks.
- Kentucky has lost three fumbles in 2018 while the Vanderbilt offense has let five get away.
- The Commodores offense has tallied four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Wildcats have accounted for three such plays.
- The Vanderbilt defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kentucky has given up two such plays.
- The Vanderbilt offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kentucky has created 14 such runs.
- The Commodores defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wildcats have given up five such runs.
- The O/U for Kentucky’s last game was set at 49. The under cashed in the team’s 20-14 defeat to Texas A&M.
- Over its last three matchups, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three games, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Vanderbilt has lost five of its last six games SU, with a four-point win over Tennessee State on September 29th accounting for the only victory over that span.
- The O/U for Vanderbilt’s previous game was set at 51. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 loss to Florida.
- Vanderbilt has produced 5.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
- Kentucky has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.5 over its past two.
