The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+9) are set to face off against their in-conference nemesis North Texas Mean Green (-9) at Apogee Stadium. This crucial daytime game is scheduled to get going at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: North Texas Mean Green vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
In this Saturday Conference USA matchup, North Texas has been labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 9 points. The Golden Eagles are also receiving +270 moneyline odds while the Mean Green are -350. Some good live betting opportunities should exist during this showdown.
The Golden Eagles are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.4 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 1-2.
The Mean Green have gained 0.5 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 3-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 0-6.
The Golden Eagles are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Mean Green are 5-1 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Golden Eagles fell to Auburn 24-13 in a matchup where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Jack Abraham completed 30 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jaylond Adams (eight receptions, 47 yards) and Trivenskey Mosley (six catches, three yards) handled the receiving duties.
North Texas just got a 27-24 win over UTEP. The team’s defense let the Miners pass for 313 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 104 yards. Warren Redix had a good outing in the loss for UTEP, recording 131 yards on seven catches. For North Texas, Mason Fine completed 23-of-34 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns. DeAndre Torrey (70 yards on 19 rush attempts) and Nic Smith (64 yards on 13 carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win while Rico Bussey, Jr. (eight receptions, 117 yards, one TD) and Jaelon Darden (five catches, 91 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Southern Miss has run the ball on 45.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Texas has a rush percentage of 49.1 percent. The Golden Eagles have rushed for 110.8 yards per game and have two scores via handoffs this year. The Mean Green are logging 154.5 rush yards per game (132.5 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Mean Green might hold an advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, since their running backs has generated 4.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 YPC to opponents. The Golden Eagles have registered 3.4 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Golden Eagles offensive scheme has averaged 319.0 yards through the air overall and has 11 passing scores so far. The Mean Green have recorded 328.5 pass yards per game (295 in the CUSA) and have 15 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Southern Miss appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 123.3 rush yards and 165.8 pass yards per game. The North Texas defense has allowed 229.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 104.8 yards per game on the ground. The Mean Green are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.72 to opponents, while the Golden Eagles have given up a 4.25 ANY/A.
Offensively, Abraham is up to 835 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 70 percent of his 117 attempts with seven passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 5.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.22 over the last two outings.
We expect Abraham to attack all areas of the North Texas secondary. De’Michael Harris (94 receiving yards), Quez Watkins (267 yards, five TDs) and Tim Jones (94 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.
In the hosts’ locker room, Mason Fine has managed to complete 128-of-196 passes for 1,622 yards, 12 TDs and one INT. Fine’s ANY/A stands at 8.91 for the season and 8.73 across his last two outings.
We’re looking for Mean Green to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Rico Bussey, Jr. (420 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Loren Easly (386 rush yards, four rush TDs, 58 receiving yards) and Nic Smith (179 rush yards, two rush TDs, 15 receiving yards, one TD) have really been focal points in the North Texas offense.
When these two schools met a year ago, North Texas got the victory 43-28.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at North Texas Mean Green Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: North Texas, ATS Winner: North Texas
Team Betting Trends
- Both passing attacks have produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Golden Eagles have have made five pass plays of 30+ yards while the Mean Green have created 17 such plays.
- The Southern Miss defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while North Texas has given up five such plays.
- The Southern Miss offense has created two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while North Texas has created 10 such runs.
- The Golden Eagles defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Mean Green have given up seven such runs.
- The North Texas D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this season. Southern Miss has recorded just five sacks.
- As a team, Southern Miss has rushed for 2.80232558139535 yards per attempt over its past three games and 3.5 over its last two.
- North Texas has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.7 over its past two.
- Over its last three matches, North Texas is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Southern Miss was favored by 28 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 50.5. The under cashed and Southern Miss did not cover in the 24-13 defeat to Auburn.
- In its last three games, Southern Miss is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- North Texas was the underdog by 25 points in its last outing and the Over/Under going into it was 54. The under cashed and North Texas covered in that 27-24 victory over UTEP.
