A couple of schools that prefer to keep it on the ground, Tigers (+4.5) are set to welcome the No. 10 UCF Knights (-4.5) to Memphis. ABC is scheduled to televise the action and kickoff for this vital AAC showdown is pegged for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights
Memphis is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 4.5 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to wager $200 to win $100 back on the Knights (-200). The Tigers are getting +170 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early, it will probably create a nice betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s opening line was originally set at 4 but has moved a bit recently.
The Knights have gained 2.0 units so far and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-3.
The lackluster Tigers have lost 10.2 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and also has an O/U record of 2-3.
The Knights have gone 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Tigers are 4-2 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Knights are hoping to stay undefeated after a 48-20 victory over SMU last week. The defense did its part in the win, holding the Mustangs to just 237 passing yards and 83 rushing yards. James Proche had a good day for the Mustangs in that one with 100 yards and two touchdowns on 12 catches. On the offense, McKenzie Milton completed only 18-of-34 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Adrian Killins Jr. (113 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) and Otis Anderson (74 yards on six carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack while Tre Nixon (six receptions, 97 yards, one TD) and Dredrick Snelson (six catches, 72 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Memphis is coming off of a lopsided 55-14 win over Connecticut. The Tigers defensive unit allowed the Huskies to run for 112 yards on 30 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Zavier Scott had a productive outing in the defeat, recording 44 rushing yards on six attempts for Connecticut. For Memphis, Brady White completed 16-of-18 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown. Darrell Henderson (174 yards on 14 rush attempts, three TDs) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (161 yards on 11 carries, three TDs) handled the running game while Tony Pollard (four receptions, 44 yards) and Sean Dykes (three catches, 62 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Each of these teams sports a strikingly similar (55-45) run-pass ratio on the season. The Knights have run for 269.4 yards per game (including 276.0 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 17 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are putting up 274.5 rush yards per game (214.0 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Tigers should hold an advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, since their backfield has produced 7.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Knights have registered 6.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Knights offense has averaged 305.0 yards through the air overall (320.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have put up 272.7 pass yards per outing (216 in the AAC) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, UCF has allowed opponents to run for an average of 181.8 yards and pass for 174.6 yards per game. The Memphis D has allowed 176.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 172.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.47 to opponents, while the Tigers have allowed a 4.86 ANY/A.
Offensively, Milton has put up 1,173 passing yards this year. He’s completed 61 percent of his 137 attempts with 11 passing scores and four interceptions. Milton’s got an 8.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.80 over the last two games.
Adrian Killins Jr. (306 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 49 receiving yards this season), Tre Nixon (284 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Gabriel Davis (285 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played key roles of late.
Brady White has managed to complete 94-of-126 passes for 1,303 yards, 13 TDs and one INT for Memphis. His ANY/A stands at 11.50 for the season and 8.80 across his past two outings.
We’re expecting the Tigers to control tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Damonte Coxie (399 receiving yards, four TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but Darrell Henderson (883 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 131 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (331 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the Memphis offense.
UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers NCAA Pick
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: UCF
Betting Notes
- The Knights offense has recorded three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Tigers have accounted for seven such plays.
- The UCF defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while Memphis has given up three such plays.
- The UCF offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Memphis has created 22 such runs.
- The Knights defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Tigers have given up 11 such runs.
- The Memphis defensive unit has notched 13 sacks on the year while UCF has nine.
- As a team, UCF has averaged 5.32608695652174 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 5.6 over its last two.
- Memphis has averaged 6.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 6.7 over its last two.
- In its last three games, Memphis is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- UCF was favored by 26 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was set at 74. The under cashed and UCF covered in the 48-20 win over SMU.
- Over its last three contests, UCF is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Memphis was favored by 36 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 77.5. The under cashed and Memphis covered in the team’s 55-14 win over Connecticut.
- Memphis has won four of its last five games SU, with a -16-point defeat to Tulane on September 28th representing the one loss over that stretch.
