The Cal Poly Mustangs (0-1) and the California Golden Bears (0-1), who both like to play patient, will clash at Haas Pavilion. California is an 8.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 137 points. Action begins at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 12, 2017, and it can be seen on Pac-12 Network.
Cal Poly Mustangs at California Golden Bears ATS Preview
The last time the Mustangs played, they were beaten by the Stanford Cardinal, 78-62, but did cover as 18.5-point underdogs. Cal Poly’s Donovan Fields had a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 21 points on 9-for-16 shooting. Stanford did a fantastic job of making free throws (17-23; 73.9 percent). Cal Poly, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (14.7 vs. 20.2). The two teams combined to put up 140 points, which hit the projected point total.
The Golden Bears failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites in their 74-66 loss to the UC Riverside Highlanders in their last contest. Don Coleman was the game’s leading scorer with 32 points on 9-for-28 shooting. UC Riverside had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.443 vs. 0.339). California, on the other hand, had a much better free throw rate (0.387 vs. 0.171). The two teams combined to put up 140 points, which came in over the projected point total of 133.5.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. California ranks 299th in possessions per game (66.8) and Cal Poly is 298th (66.8) since the 2016-17 season. Furthermore, the Mustangs’ 276th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 100.2) will square off against the Golden Bears’ 18th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 95.2).
The Mustangs are 11-21 straight up (SU) and 11-17 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Since last season, games featuring Cal Poly have had no tendency in regards to the O/U total as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
The Golden Bears are 21-13 SU since last season, but are just 14-20-1 ATS. Vegas has been fairly accurate when predicting totals of California games over that same stretch with 19 overs compared to 16 unders.
The Golden Bears won the only contest against the Mustangs last season, 81-55. The Golden Bears dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.621 and a free throw rate of 0.155. The Mustangs put up marks of 0.379 and 0.129, respectively, for those same stats.
Cal Poly Mustangs at California Golden Bears Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – California, ATS Winner – California, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2016-Present):
- The Golden Bears rank 256th in assists per game (11.9) while the Mustangs rank 307th (10.4).
- Cal Poly ranks 217th in steals per game (5.3) while California ranks 248th (4.9).
- California ranks 27th in rebounds per game (39.1) while Cal Poly ranks 288th (32.1).
- The Mustangs rank 52nd in three pointers attempted per game (24.5) while the Golden Bears rank 225th (19.4).
- California ranks 38th in blocks per game (4.7) while Cal Poly ranks 110th (3.7).
