The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be airing the action. The opening pitch will be at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati (+125) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-135). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. You can also bet on the game’s spread with the current runline odds coming in at Reds +1.5 runs (-170) and Brewers +-1.5 runs (+150).
The Brewers are 8-8 SU and 7-8 ATS. They’ve gained 1.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 2.9 units against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Reds have gone 2-13 SU this year and are 5-9 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 9.7 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 6.4 units ATS. Cincinnati’s covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Milwaukee games have an over/under record of 7-8 so far in 2018. Reds games have gone under eight times, gone over six times and pushed on zero instances.
The Reds have lost 2.0 units and are 1-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in one of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 2.9 units and are 5-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, compared to five which went under the total.
Right-hander Luis Castillo is the projected starter for Cincinnati. Castillo is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 13 strikeouts. He has yet to face Milwaukee this year, but he made two starts against the Brewers in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record against them with a 1.98 ERA and 19 strikeouts.
The Brewers are putting the ball in the left hand of Brent Suter (1-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), who has 11 strikeouts and five walks. Suter made two starts against the Reds in 2017, posting a 0-0 record with a 6.00 ERA.
Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.59, a WHIP of 1.42 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 2.67, a WHIP of 1.17 and a K/9 of 10.8. In 10 games against NL Central foes, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.73 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.10.
The Milwaukee offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 2.7 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .236/.299/.416 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Brewers’ hitters have been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is slashing .222/.314/.600 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar is batting .421 with eight hits, zero RBIs and four runs.
Aguilar did not seem to enjoy hitting against righties at home last season, slashing .171/.244/.366 across 90 such plate appearances (his total season line was .265/.331/.505).
In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 6.66 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.96, along with a K-per-9 of 8.61.
Reds hitters have slashed .224/.303/.325 on their way to 2.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 2.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).
Cincinnati’s offense has been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart is slashing .278/.422/.500 with 10 hits, two homers, three RBIs and four runs scored.
Suarez didn’t perform especially well on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .248/.353/.340 across 334 plate appearances (his overall season line was .260/.367/.461).
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The Reds have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
- Cincinnati has recorded 18.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.4 over its last five.
- The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games SU.
