The Kentucky Wildcats (22-10, 11-8 SEC) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (19-14, 10-10 SEC) clash in the Southeastern Conference Tourney at Scottrade Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 10, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats ATS Preview
The last time the Crimson Tide played, they had no trouble getting past the No. 16 Auburn Tigers, 81-63. Collin Sexton was the top scorer from either team with 31 points on 10-for-16 shooting. Alabama played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.404 (above their season average of 0.278) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.577 (above their season average of 0.516). Auburn was 0.242 and 0.387, respectively, for those same stats.
The Wildcats hope to keep it rolling after beating the Georgia Bulldogs in their last matchup, 62-49. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a good outing for Kentucky, recording 15 points and nine assists. The Wildcats had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 7.1 (better than their season average of 16.3) and held the Bulldogs to an effective field goal percentage of 0.340 (below their season average of 0.479).
Look for Kentucky to own the offensive glass in this battle. The Wildcats rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 percent), while Alabama ranks 281st in defensive rebounding percentage (69.0 percent).
These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Alabama games have finished under 66.7 percent of the time, while 60.0 percent of games featuring Kentucky have finished over. The Wildcats hold the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (22-10 vs. 19-14), but the Crimson Tide have the superior against the spread (ATS) record (16-14-1 vs. 13-17-1).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Crimson Tide, it’s been Sexton, who has averaged 20.8 points and 4.6 assists, while the Wildcats have received solid contributions from Gilgeous-Alexander (14.4 points and 6.6 assists).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 152 points, which was over the projected point total of 142.5. The Wildcats won 81-71, covering as 5-point favorites. The Wildcats played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 52.6 and a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.328. The Crimson Tide were 27.3 and 0.236, respectively, for those same stats. Donta Hall had a standout performance with 16 points and six rebounds.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Alabama, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Crimson Tide rank 39th in assists allowed per game (11.4) while the Wildcats rank 125th (13.1).
- Kentucky averages 39.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 21st in the nation. Alabama ranks 208th in rebounds allowed per game (36.4).
- The Crimson Tide average 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the nation. The Wildcats rank 172nd in blocks allowed per game (3.8).
- Alabama ranks 161st in three pointers allowed per game (21.8) while Kentucky ranks 289th (25.6).
Betting Trends:
- Kentucky is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Alabama is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Wildcats average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.8, up from 6.0 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Crimson Tide have scored an average of 68.6 points per game (4.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.0 points per game (0.5 above their season average).
