MWC foes will battle when the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (18-7, 7-5 MWC) take on the Air Force Falcons (10-13, 4-7 MWC) at Thomas & Mack Center. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 156.5 points with UNLV set as a 14.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 14, 2018.
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Preview
The Falcons beat the New Mexico Lobos in their last matchup, 100-92. Ryan Swan led Air Force in scoring with 17 points on 6-for-12 shooting. Air Force played a nearly perfect game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 29.9) and a turnover percentage of 17.2 (worse than their season average of 16.2). For those same stats, New Mexico was 20.0 and 19.9, respectively.
In the Runnin’ Rebels last game, they topped the Wyoming Cowboys, 85-70. UNLV received a boost from Shakur Juiston, who was the top scorer from either team with 22 points on 11-for-15 shooting. UNLV played a perfect game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.323 (above their season average of 0.300) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.492 (below their season average of 0.559). Wyoming was 0.135 and 0.405, respectively, for those same stats.
The high-octane offense of UNLV (25th in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 114.4) will battle against the porous defense of Air Force (303rd in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 109.4). The Runnin’ Rebels figure to have the edge on that end of the court.
Both of these teams have typically gone over the projected point total. Air Force games have gone over 55.6 percent of the time, while games involving UNLV have gone over 70.8 percent of the time. The Runnin’ Rebels have the superior straight up (SU) record (18-7 vs. 10-13), but the Falcons have been superior against the spread (ATS) (12-6 vs. 12-12-1).
Juiston has really been playing well over the last five games for UNLV, averaging 14.6 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 157 points, which was over the projected point total of 150.5. The Runnin’ Rebels won 81-76, but were unable to cover as 9.5-point favorites. UNLV had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.728 vs. 0.459). Air Force, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 22.7). Lavelle Scottie was the top overall scorer in the game with 26 points.
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Betting Prediction
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – UNLV, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Runnin’ Rebels rank 28th in assists allowed per game (11.1) while the Falcons rank 180th (14.3).
- Air Force averages 6.2 steals per game, which ranks 132nd in the NCAA. UNLV ranks 136th in steals allowed per game (6.5).
- Air Force is 5-5 ATS on the road with 6 unders and 4 overs.
- At home, UNLV is 8-7 ATS with 12 overs and 2 unders.
- UNLV ranks 12th in rebounds per game (40.4) while Air Force ranks 268th (32.6).
- The Falcons rank 88th in three pointers attempted per game (23.6) while the Runnin’ Rebels rank 287th (16.9).
- UNLV ranks 41st in blocks per game (4.4) while Air Force ranks 193rd (2.3).
Betting Trends:
- UNLV is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Air Force is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Runnin’ Rebels average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.0, down from 10.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Falcons have scored an average of 68.2 points per game (1.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 77.4 points per game (4.5 above their season average).
