In a battle of two offenses that like to air it out, the Falcons (+5) are gearing up to host the New Orleans Saints (-5) in Atlanta. This Thursday Night Football showdown starts at 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC has the TV rights.
Thursday NightBetting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is the home underdog in this NFC game and is currently receiving 5 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to lay down $200 to win $100 back on the Saints (-200). The Falcons are getting +170 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early it’ll generate a worthwhile live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points.
Odds have moved some from where they originally opened. The opening line was 5.5 and the game’s total was initially set at 49.
The Saints are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.6 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 5-5.
The Falcons have gained 0.1 units this season. The team is 3-6-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-7.
The Saints have gone 9-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Falcons are 3-8 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Saints just got a 34-31 win over Carolina last week where Drew Brees completed 30-of-39 passes for 311 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Alvin Kamara (54 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and Latavius Murray (64 yards on seven carries, one TD) led the running attack while Michael Thomas (10 receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Kamara (nine catches, 48 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 12, Tampa Bay knocked off this Atlanta crew by a score of 35-22. As a group, the team collectively completed 28-of-55 passes for 326 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Matt Ryan went 23-for-46 for 271 yards and one interception while Matt Schaub was five-of-nine for 55 yards and one touchdown. Brian Hill (14 yards on nine rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Russell Gage (eight receptions, 76 yards) and Calvin Ridley (six catches, 85 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
New Orleans has run the ball on 39.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Atlanta has a rush percentage of 32.8 percent. The Saints have rushed for 108.5 yards per game (including 97.8 per game against South opponents) and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are totaling 72.9 rush yards per game (84.7 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Saints ought to have the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has allowed only 20 sacks while the D-line logged 49 sacks. The Falcons, on the other hand, have allowed 42 sacks and their defense has recorded only 37 sacks.
The Saints offensive scheme has averaged 275 yards in the air overall (297 per game against conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Falcons have produced 319.7 pass yards per contest (274 in the NFC) and have 21 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New Orleans appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 88.5 yards and throw for 251.7 yards per game. The Atlanta D has allowed 279.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 109.9 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.80 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a 7.68 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Brees has put up 1,379 yards this year. He’s connected on 131-of-175 attempts with eight passing scores and four interceptions. Brees has a 7.03 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.93 over the last two outings.
We expect the New Orleans offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jared Cook have collectively accounted for 571 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
For the home team, Matt Ryan has completed 245-of-366 passes for 2,623 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs. Ryan’s ANY/A stands at 5.91 for the year and 5.72 over his last two games.
We expect Ryan to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Calvin Ridley (556 receiving yards and five receiving TDs this season), Julio Jones (859 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), and Russell Gage (201 receiving yards) have collectively recorded 495 receiving yards and two scores over the last couple of games, recording 22, 17, and 14 targets (respectively) over that stretch.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Saints offense has produced five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Falcons have put up three such plays.
- The New Orleans defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Atlanta has given up seven such plays.
- The New Orleans offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Atlanta has created five such runs.
- The Saints defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Falcons have given up eight such runs.
- The New Orleans defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 31 times this season. Atlanta has recorded just 18 sacks.
- New Orleans, as a team, has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
- Atlanta has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.5 over its last two.
- New Orleans has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 17-point loss to Atlanta on November 10th accounting for the only defeat over that span.
