A couple of franchises that prefer to pass the ball, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) are gearing up to take on the Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. FOX will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville is the road underdog in this game and is currently receiving 7 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -280. If one team can get out in front early it will create a reasonable in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points.
With the spread opening at -7 and the O/U originally set at 46, bookmakers have swayed the odds slightly.
The Jaguars are 6-8 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-6-1.
The Falcons are up 1.8 units this season. The team is 5-8-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-8.
The Jaguars have gone 5-9 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Falcons are also 5-9 SU.
The Jaguars just got a 20-16 win over Oakland in Week 15. Gardner Minshew II completed 17-of-29 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns. Leonard Fournette (42 yards on 15 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack. Fournette (five receptions, 31 yards) and Chris Conley (four catches, 49 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a 29-22 win over San Francisco in Week 15. The team’s defense allowed the 49ers to rush for 120 yards on 27 attempts, along with one rushing TD. George Kittle was a bright spot in the loss for San Francisco, accounting for 134 yards on 13 catches. For Atlanta, Matt Ryan completed 25-of-39 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Devonta Freeman (39 rushing yards on 12 attempts) mounted the running attack as Julio Jones (13 receptions, 134 yards, two TDs) and Russell Gage (five catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Jacksonville’s run the ball on 39.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Atlanta has a rush percentage of 34.2 percent. The Jaguars have produced 109 rush yards/game and have three touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are putting up 81.4 rush yards per game and have eight total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Jaguars could own the advantage when it comes to applying pressure, since their offensive line has allowed only 53 sacks while the D-line registered 37 sacks. The Falcons O-line has allowed 42 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 37 occasions.
The Jags offensive scheme has averaged 252.9 yards through the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Falcons have put up 310.9 pass yards per game and have 27 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Jacksonville has let opponents rush for an average of 140.1 yards and pass for 253 yards per game. The Atlanta D has allowed 267.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Jags have given up an ANY/A of 6.76 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons are allowing an ANY/A of 7.15.
Offensively, Minshew II has amassed 2,633 passing yards this season, and has completed 221-of-363 attempts with 16 passing scores and only five interceptions. He has a 6.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.71 over the last two outings.
Matt Ryan has connected on 326-of-486 passes for 3,456 yards, 22 TDs and 12 INTs for Atlanta. His ANY/A sits at 5.85 for the season and 7.67 across his last two outings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons Free Prediction
SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Jaguars have made 21 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Falcons have accounted for 14 such plays.
- The Jacksonville defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Atlanta has given up eight such plays.
- The Jacksonville offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Atlanta has created six such runs.
- The Jaguars defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 11 such runs.
- The Jacksonville D has 43 sacks on the year while Atlanta has just 24.
- Jacksonville, as a team, has produced 3.5 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.7 over its last two.
- Atlanta has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.8 over its past two.
