To conclude the 2019 regular season, the Cleveland Browns (-2.5) are set to face off against their AFC North foe Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. FOX will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Week 17 Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
In this Sunday AFC game, Cleveland is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Browns are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Bengals are +120. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 45 points, and if one side catches a lucky break early on, it will likely generate a nice live betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors have been leaning toward the under. The game’s O/U initially opened at 46.
The Browns are 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.3 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 7-8.
The disappointing Bengals have lost 13.8 units this season. The team is 5-9-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-8-1.
The Browns are 6-9 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are 1-14 SU overall and 0-5 SU against divisional foes.
The Browns are most-recently on the rebound after a 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week. Baker Mayfield completed 20 passes for 192 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Nick Chubb (only 45 yards on 15 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Jarvis Landry (seven receptions, 74 yards) and Odell Beckham Jr. (four catches, 44 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
Cincinnati most-recently dropped a 38-35 game to Miami in Week 16. Andy Dalton completed 33-of-56 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Joe Mixon (50 yards on 21 rush attempts) handled the running game as Tyler Boyd (nine receptions, 128 yards, two TDs) and Alex Erickson (six catches, 55 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Cleveland’s run the ball on 42.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 37 percent. The Browns have rushed for 121.3 yards per game (including 119.6 per game against North opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bengals are putting up 89.2 rushing yards per game (105.6 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then it seems like the Browns ought to have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has given up only 38 sacks while their D-line registered 37 sacks. The Bengals offensive line has given up 37 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 34 occasions.
The Browns offensive scheme has logged 237.9 yards/contest in the air overall (223 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Bengals have recorded 253.6 pass yards per outing (211 against AFC foes) and have 17 total pass scores.
Cleveland appears to have the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 142.4 yards and pass for 236.7 yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has allowed 256.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 153.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Browns are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.10 to opposing QBs, while the Bengals have given up a 7.56 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mayfield has put up 3,301 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 59 percent of his 464 attempts with 17 passing scores and 17 interceptions. He has a 5.31 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.49 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Browns to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Odell Beckham Jr. (888 yards, three TDs), Nick Chubb (1,326 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Kareem Hunt (153 rush yards, two rush TDs, 191 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the Cleveland offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Andy Dalton has completed 281-of-469 passes for 3,153 yards, 14 TDs and nine INTs. Dalton’s ANY/A stands at 5.52 for the season and 4.86 across his last two games.
The Bengals will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Joe Mixon (253 receiving yards, three receiving TDs), Tyler Boyd (23 rush yards, 961 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and John Ross III (six rush yards, 440 receiving yards, three TDs) have seen quite a few action lately.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals NFL Prediction
SU Winner: Bengals, ATS Winner: Bengals, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Cleveland D has sacked opposing QBs 37 times this season. Cincinnati has registered just 25 sacks.
- The Cincinnati offense has lost 14 fumbles in 2019 while Cleveland has lost seven.
- Each team has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Browns have have made 19 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Bengals have created 15 such plays.
- The Cleveland defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Cincinnati has given up 10 such plays.
- The Cleveland offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Cincinnati has created five such runs.
- The Browns defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bengals have given up 22 such runs.
- The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s last match was set at 46. The over cashed in the 38-35 loss to Miami.
- Over its last three games, Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, Cleveland is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Cleveland has lost four of its last five games SU, with an eight-point victory over Cincinnati on December 8th representing the only win over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for Cleveland’s last game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-15 loss to Baltimore.
- As a team, Cleveland has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.7 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
