The Chicago Bears (-9.5) are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. This early afternoon game will begin at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.
Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears
In this Sunday game, Chicago is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 9.5 points. The Bears are also receiving -440 moneyline odds while the Bills are +310. If one team finds paydirt early it will generate a worthwhile live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 37.5 points.
The sharp action has been siding with the Bears, as the opening line was 8.5. The game’s over/under hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 37.5.
The Bears have lost 0.8 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 4-3.
The Bills are down 3.8 units this season. The team is 3-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 2-6.
The Bears have gone 4-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bills are 2-6 SU.
The Bears are coming off a resounding 24-10 win over the Jets last week where Mitchell Trubisky completed only 16-of-29 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Howard (81 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Trubisky (51 yards on six carries) led the ground attack. Taylor Gabriel (four receptions, 52 yards) and Josh Bellamy (four catches, 37 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Buffalo just dropped a 25-6 game to New England in Week 8. Derek Anderson completed 22-of-39 passes for 290 yards and one interception. LeSean McCoy had an outstanding statline in the loss. In addition to 13 yards on 12 rush attempts, McCoy also reeled in six receptions for 82 yards.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each squad has a strikingly similar (46-54) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bears have run for 137.6 yards/game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bills are putting up 97.3 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers so far, it appears that the Bears ought to have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has logged 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Bills have ran for 3.7 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Bears offensive scheme has averaged 259.1 yards in the air overall and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bills have put up 175.6 pass yards per contest and have three total pass TDs.
Defensively, Chicago has allowed 83.1 rush yards and 263.0 pass yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 237.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.4 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bears have given up an ANY/A of 5.75 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are allowing an ANY/A of 6.04.
Trubisky probably has the edge over Anderson in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.24for the year and 6.33 over the last two outings. Anderson’s ANY/A is 5.21 for the season and 3.36 across his last two games.
Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- Chicago has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its past two.
- The Buffalo offense has lost five fumbles this season while Chicago has lost four.
- Buffalo has lost five of its last six games SU, with a one-point win over Tennessee on October 7th accounting for its lone victory over that stretch.
- The Bears offense has created six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bills have accounted for three such plays.
- The Chicago defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up one such play.
- The Chicago offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Buffalo has created four such runs.
- The Bears defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while the Bills have given up six such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has tallied 21 sacks on the year while Chicago has 20.
